Congratulations owners as we are just two days away from commencing with the 3rd season of #GMRRFFA and it is absolutely shocking how we got to this point, just three weeks since keepers were submitted and a week since one of the wildest drafts plus three atomic trades that have left me asking “What’s next?”
You’ve all been tremendous sports humoring me with extensive columns about nothing, websites, Twitter, WhatsApp and now, its time to put up or shut up, and like you I am excited for the season. Before we get to Thursday night, I had one more ace up my sleeve, and thought the post-Labor Day Tuesday would be the best time to make the ten most likely predictions for the 2018 season. I took a deep dive into the last three weeks plus the history of the league, and thought what better way to highlight my foresight in to the league than posting something on the internet? I’ll revisit this in 2019 to highlight the results, but Good News! I’m already 1 for 10 and we haven’t even made it to Thursday night!
Enjoy the last non-results-based commentary until January and come at me if you disagree, or have your own hot takes for the season…
1. PREDICTION: The Commissioner Will Regress
I take great pride in having made the Final Four two years in a row, and came pretty close to knocking out the eventual 2017 champs in the semis. I even have the best overall regular season record (by a half-game but whatever), but reality has to be setting in. I think I have fairly solid roster (Cousins, Howard, McCoy, Evans, TY) but compared to some, I’m pretty concerned that it may not stack up. In fact, I think its fairly safe to presume that I’ll be closer to battling for a 7 or 8 see than vying for a division title, like last year. To that end, don’t expect to see Trubitsky Business in the money rounds this year and, candidly, I’m already exploring what a team rebuild might look like if I get off to a slow start.
2. PREDICTION: Record Number of Outrageous Trades Will Continue to Rise
I was stunned about the original Baldwin trade post draft day, shocked by the AB for peanuts trade two days later, and flabbergasted by the Dorne heist (see #6), so at this point anything is literally possible. As owners become more engaged and informed, the smart ones will know trading role players for studs will make sense, while the rest of us will continue to absorb depth at thin positions. I don’t think we are beyond the realm of possibility of more top-three players by position moving… I mean, its only Tuesday and I am scared to do another power ranking because it’ll likely need to be updated. For someone who enjoys trades, I’m truly terrified of what is going to happen next…
I feel like this #GMRRFFA comment sums up the league’s trading tendencies fairly accurately:
3. PREDICTION: One of the 2 Teams Never to Make the Playoffs will Get There This Year
In two season, #GMRRFFA has seen an impressive amount of parity. Aside from Dorne always in the championship and your Commish making the Final Four, 12 of the 14 owners have reached the playoffs in just two seasons, with the exception of Fredo Minnella and Carlos. Both sit at the bottom of the league with the worst overall records (10-17 for Carlos, 9-18 for Fredo), and not surprisingly, neither has eclipsed five wins in the season. That said, I think one, if not both, see a marked improvement, and even get a post-season slot. First, given the parity in the league, the 8th seed the past two seasons both had 7 losses (both Carlos and Fredo finished with 8 losses in ’17), meaning neither are that far away. More so, while Carlos’s in-season inactions are questionable, his roster is so stacked it may not matter. Brady, Fournette, Gordon, Hill, Ertz seems like a playoff team. Meanwhile, Fredo had a very good 2017 draft, but a few bad decisions cost him. This year, he starts with Stafford, Henry, Landry, Tate, Graham and the Vikings D, which suggests he’s going to be competitive every week. His challenge will be what happens when Julio Jones explodes for his once-in-a-season 40 point game, and how Fredo’s roster responds. Nonetheless, both should be optimistic at the potential post-season prospects this year.
4. PREDICTION: Someone’s Going to Get Offended in the WhatsApp Group & Leave Next Season
This is a brave hottake on my end, and I sincerely don’t want it to happen, because I friggin hate quitters. But I think it does. Just this week, Toby was blistered over the lop-sided OBJ deal and your illustrious commish was tortured mercilessly for an inordinate amount of grey hair (Note from Mrs. Riff Raff: “They shouldn’t talk because how many of them have a full head of hair? Also, I’d make fun of you more for the sailor outfit than your gray hair.”)
The group chat is like a snowball rolling down a mountain; when momentum hits, the comments build and build and build; here’s hoping it doesn’t get to that point, but candidly there’s a reason we have a #GMRRFFA wait list…
5. PREDICTION: Fredo Will Threaten to Quit Because He Hates Fantasy Football
Every year, Fredo Minnella complains about how much he hates fantasy football, like this year when he said he already didn’t like the season post-keepers. Then, he’ll get mad when a trade is vetoed, or the group chat nails him for a lop-sided deal. Subsequently, he’ll declare he’s not playing next season for which your illustrious, grey-haired Commissioner and Vienna Sausages’ owner Jon will walk him back off the ledge, highlighting the extra time we get to talk about non-work/non-marriage/non-baby stuff. Fredo’s threats of leaving the league come and go as often as number six on my prediction list…
6. PREDICTION: Toby will get Swindled
Look, it happens every season with Toby, where he gets swindled for one of his elite players. In 2016, it was your commish hustling Toby for Julio Jones. In 2017, it was a similar event over coffee, where Toby enthusiastically traded me Travis Kelce without a second thought within 5 minutes of a “business” meeting. Guess what? This year, its already happened and I’m guaranteed to hit one out of 10 predictions before the season even kicks off.
I mean, I was a little bummed it wasn’t me this time, but Dorne’s Mark, who swiped OBJ for Baldwin (lest we forget, Dorne heisted Smeet for Baldwin with a poo-poo platter just last Tuesday) and Dion Lewis. I get the arguments from Toby, who was desperate following Jerrick McKinnon’s season-ending injury depleted, he panicked, making a quick trade to get Lewis, who candidly I’m dubious about. The Titans’ RB has never gone a full season injury-free (except in ’17) nor has he carried a substantial workload week-in, week-out. Last season, he did play a full season, but he only carried the ball 11 times per game plus just 2 receiving targets. In fact, he only played in 35% of New England’s offensive snaps last year. So, I’m not sold on the trade from what Toby receives (even if Baldwin is a good WR, which I believe he is).
More so, giving up OBJ is also a huge problem; competitive teams need potential homerun hitters, like OBJ. Players who average 15-20 points consistently with the potential to bust out a 25-point game in any given week. In 2016, Dorne had both Michael Thomas, who averaged 15 points per game, and Devonta Freeman who averaged 18 points per game. Both had potential – and did – to bust out 25 point games on Dorne’s way to a title. In 2017, Silvio sent out Nuk and Zeke Elliot every week, both averaging 20 plus when they played. BUT Hopkins also ran up scores, dropping 25-plus four times, including a 40-point and 38-point games. Meanwhile, Zeke scored 15-plus every week he played but one, plus had a 43-point game.
The point being, Doug Baldwin and Dion Lewis are good players, but to win in this league, an owner needs someone like OBJ who has the potential to drop huge numbers. Pre-injury, OBJ had 41 catches and three touchdowns in less than four games in 2017. In 2016, OBJ had FIVE 25-plus points games. In 2015, he had SIX straight 100+ yard games that averaged 7 catches per game, 132 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns, which averages out to 28 points per week.
7. PREDICTION: The Consolation Bracket is Going To Be A Lot of Fun
This year, non-playoff teams have a reason to be invested – the consolation bracket winner will get all the 2019 auction draft tax dollars. I’m hoping this will be a fun new wrinkle to go along with owners being able to trade future draft dollars. Given the loaded rosters already, I’d highly anticipate a lot of mid-season trades to make the elite teams even better, and real stakes in the form of ’19 drat dollars for those teams sending away high-performing assets will make the consolation bracket even more intriguing.
8. PREDICTION: The League Will Likely Have Two Different Classes of Teams – Elite & Average
I write every week about homerun hitters, and how vital having a player who can drop a 25 or 30-point week is in the long run for an owner’s prospects. I highlighted Silvio’s loaded 2017 roster above, and his squad averaged 131 points per week, substantially higher than almost every other team, so it wasn’t a surprise when he won the championship. Meanwhile, #Smeet had a competitive team, finished with the same regular season record (8-5), but averaged just 106 points before exiting the playoffs.
Homerun hitters matter which is why some of the deals, like the OBJ or Antonio Brown trades, are so baffling from a competition standpoint. That said, now we’re seeing a clear break among owners, with certain rosters rising above, like Galen’s squad (Hunt, DJ, Adams, Thielen), Garcia (Rodgers, Kamara, McCaffrey, Jones), Silvio (Zeke, Nuk), Jon (AB, Bell), Stabs (Gurley, Freeman), Carlos (Brady, Fournette, Gordon), and Dorne (OBJ, Gronk). I’m not saying they’ll all go undefeated against everyone else, but in any given week, they will have a significant advantage based solely on their top players having the potential to drop a 25-30-point game.
Others have solid lineups, but may not have the horses to compete against teams this loaded every week.
9. PREDICTION: #GMRRFFA 2018 Final Four will Have Some Familiar Faces – Dorne, Galen, Silvio, Garcia
Last year, Dorne, Silvio, Galen, and the Commish made the Final Four, and I’m predicting the first three will be there again, plus Garcia, pitting four super teams against one another in one of the wildest semi-finals in league history (yea, I know, there’ve only been three but you get the drift). Of the 7 best rosters, I’d be concerned if I were Jon just because Le’Veon Bell is a question mark; while he’s the best RB of the last two seasons, he’s still holding out plus at some point durability needs to be a concern. For Carlos, I simply don’t trust he’ll be engaged when he absolutely needs to be in regular season, and one or two bad decisions will pit him against someone like Galen in the first round (then again, the 7 definite playoff teams are so stacked, he won’t have an easy playoff match-up unless he gets the #1 overall seed). Finally, the toughest omission is for Stabs, who I thoroughly enjoyed this off-season with keen roster moves. Of these elite rosters, he’s got quite a few question marks, particularly at WR and whether Deshaun Watson comes back to be an animal like he was last season.
10. PREDICTION: Galen wins the Championship
I’m seriously not trying to jinx anyone here, but Galen remains the team to beat. I don’t often make bold predictions and prefer not to put myself out there on a limb in a gregarious fashion. But the rosters don’t lie. Barring an injury, Galen’s starting roster is as stacked as it gets. Rivers, Hunt, Johnson, Adams, Thielen, Njoku, Sanders is definitely a top four roster in #GMRRFFA, especially if Galen’s tight end breakouts. Also, his depth may be a concern, but what happens if Lamar Miller returns to form, or Kelvin Benjamin is playing in garbage time every week, which is all but likely given the dismal #BillsMafia? His RB combo is top-three in the league, including two homerun hitters, and he easily has a top-three WR roster. What’s more? Phillip Rivers is a beast in fantasy football: 4,000+ yards passed in 8 of his last 9 seasons; averages 30 touchdowns per season; and he boasts a solid WR core, starting with Keenan Allen and breakout star Mike Williams.