None other than your favorite Commissioner is back! Listen, you’ve heard I’m on Twitter now, tweeting the #fantasyfootball world abound about the upcoming season, spending WAY too much time learning what the hell the #Billsmafia is and how they feel slighted by Cleveland and Jacksonville fans. But even more, I’ve read literally every analysis of draft boards and sleepers on Twitter from ESPN to Yahoo Sports to RiffRafffootball.com. There is a TON of analysis out there, so if you haven’t been following, congrats on having a life outside this league. (Seriously, you deserve a hand clap).
With the keeper deadline finally passed, I had time to pen to paper the trends I’m seeing – both in the words of anonymous Twitterers and in the illustrious #GMRRFFA league history – so I am thrilled to highlight a little cheat sheet for all you unprepared owners (I know Galen, Silvio, Garcia and Mark are all cursing me right now). I spent a solid three weeks analyzing the league both in the draft and week-to-week results, and it literally boils down to the five points below (I may, or may not, have spent weeks doing the research, but I’m open to you guessing one way or the other). Also, to really f*ck with one owner, Kerryon Johnson will be the best rookie RB in the league this year…
In all seriousness, here’s the top 5 points to digest in advance of next Monday’s draft (August 27th @ 8:30 ET):
· Trending Up
Let’s be honest because frankly its no secret: Rookie running backs are trending up. No other positional player in football is more ready to play than at RB, and fantasy football is well aware of the impact these players can have on the league. We don’t have to look far to remember that last year’s rookie RB class featured some of the best RBs in the league. Four of the top 10 in the league last season were rooks (in ’16, 2 of the top 10). In our league, these guys made a huge impact on the ultimate outcome of the season, whether it was Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette, among others. And owners last year were on the train; in 2016, 9 rookie RBs were taken on average for $14. In 2017, a similar number (10) but the overall average spiked to $21! Fournette, McCaffrey and Cook were the most expensive, but Hunt went for just $10 and Kamara just $2. (In 2016, Zeke broke the bank with $68 while Thomas Rawls hit $42--- wait, what???). In any case, don’t be surprised to see those numbers continue to climb on Monday, especially considering only 5 of the top-15 2017 backs are still available. (Side note: If you were an owner and named your team after a specific rookie RB, something says I’m bidding you up.).
· Top-10 WRs are going to Cost You
Fun fact to get your nerves up – 8 of the top 20 wide receivers are already spoken for heading in to 2018, only 6 from the top 10. Nervous? You should be. Three of the 6 remaining in the top 10 last year ran north of $100 in the auction draft last year, and, candidly, all three are going to be the same next week. Of the 6 remaining top-10 WRs from 2017, they averaged $74 a piece, and produced just 16 points per week. Guess what? It gets worse… WRs 11-20 averaged just a shade over 13 points but still cost $31. (Oh, and only 6 of WRs 11-20 are still remaining). When Galen nabs a guy like Thielan as a $19 keepers, or Dorne keeps Michael Thomas for a third year at just $22, that’s when you know they’ve got a serious advantage. If you want to be competitive this season, Monday night can’t be a night to stretch your dollars.
· Buyers’ Market for Quarterbacks
Let’s be clear; quarterbacks remain critical as we changed the rules slightly to make them even more valuable this season, but anyone telling you to buy high on QBs in #GMRRFFA is leading you down a dangerous path. In 2016, the league drafted QBs on average at $31 for a top-ten QB; by 2017, that number dipped nearly 50% to $16 per top-ten QB. In 2016, four quarterbacks were drafted for $45+ (Rodgers, Brees, Luck, and Brady) but only Stabs kept Rodgers for $84 last year while Brady went for $60. The reality? You could get an 11-15 QB for less than $20 and see – at worst – a minimal dip in production. Top-10 QBs averaged 22 points over the last two seasons while costing just $23, but an 11-15 QB cost just $17 while averaging just 18 points. That’s why I was confounded by an owner keeping two quarterbacks. The trend is already apparent again in 2018 – we know there’s a dip in keeper QBs and their price, but the average cost of all seven kept quarterbacks for the upcoming season averages just $17, less than a 11-15 QB last year. Something tells me these guys will be discounted even more next week.
· (RE)volving Rosters
Your illustrious commissioner may be the first to change his roster on a whim (near 20 trades last year!), but I’m not the only one… Of the top 4 teams (i.e. first, second, third and fourth place finishers) in the last two seasons, these owners are consistently re-inventing their rosters. On average, the owners who made the Final Four have kept less than six players they’ve drafted (or kept) from the beginning of the season, or just 42% of their original rosters drafted remained by Week 16. In 2017, the percentage actually dipped substantially to 37% compared with 46% in ’16. Last year, of the 21 players that remained on rosters for the full season, 5 were keepers. Removing them, the number of players drafted who remained on rosters dipped all the way down to 31%. Pretty stark numbers, but the important point is seasons may not be won solely by keepers and drafts, except this season with Galen, meaning shrewd in-season maneuvers make a world of difference.
· Kickers Don’t Win You the Offseason, but they Can Lose It
I’m not saying it’s a bad move to spend high on a kicker, but $22 is too expensive. The best kickers last year cost about $10, so be frugal with these guys. I can’t think of anymore “You spent HOW much on a Kicker?” jokes in this league.
There’s your playbook for Monday night – enjoy and if I missed something, don’t be afraid to side chat another owner or a friend or loved one about it.