We’ve finally made it to a long and arduous 2018 #GMRRFFA season – our third in the last three years!!! – and now we are less than two weeks away from the draft, a rip-roaring time where I eagerly make bets as to who will be late to the party (this year, let’s nominate some garbage players from the Giants that Jonny can auto-bid on to really screw over his season!).
With last night’s keepers deadline passed, I’m assuring all of you I won’t pester any of you about anything anytime soon, aside from the draft in two weeks, league dues due, and, my ultimate favorite, lopsided trade offers! In any case, between a humming WhatsApp chat and the league website, I’m obviously over the moon for the 2018 campaign. I’ve made every promise imagineable to make this league the greatest, and I’m happy to announce: “MISSION F’ING ACCOMPLISHED!”
Before we do our first power rankings, let’s take a look at the keepers by the numbers, because, alas, there were ZERO kickers kept, and otherwise I’m probably out of content for this column:
· Total Number of Keepers
Its tough to compare to 2017, when only 2 keepers were allowed per team, but I’ll lean more on percentages for the analysis. In 2017, 85% of open keeper spots 24 out of 28) were filled; in 18, we’re sitting at 93%, or 39 out of 42 eligible slots among the 14 teams.
· Salary Hits
Last season, the average salary hit was $32 compared to this season, where on average a keeper cost owners just $27 per player.
· Quarterback Keepers
Fun fact, no one kept a kicker this year! More notably, in 2017, 7 quarterbacks were kept compared to 6 this year. On average, the ’17 keeper quarterbacks averaged $32. By comparison, the '18 QBs cost on average just $17. In fact, no one spent more than $24 on a quarterback this year (Wilson), but owners kept three (Rodgers, Brady, and Rivers) well over that figure last season. Its safe to assume that quarterback play may not be as valuable this season, as we collectively have learned to appreciate kickers as the lynchpin to a successful fantasy football season…
· Run on Running backs
In 2017, 7 running backs were labeled as keepers, or 25% of total keepers. By comparison, 46% of keepers in 2018 were RBs. More shocking, EIGHT of the top ten projected RBs this season are already spoken for, especially Alvin Kamara, which is pretty insane. Last year, running back keepers cost just $37 on average; this year, they will cost on average $29.
· Remaining Auction Salary for the Draft
With all the off-season keeper spending, owners on average have $224 to spend on the upcoming draft, and we have a few well under $200 to fill out their remaining rosters (Reigning champ Silvio checks in with just $113 while Carlos has $164).
I have a few thoughts on how all of the keeper spending shakes out, but I think its probably too early to set expectations, especially on the Running Back portion of keeper selections. That said, I’ll say this: last season, only FOUR of the top ten preseason projected running backs ultimately finished in the top ten by the end of the season, so if you’re missing a stud RB today, know that research, analysis, and a lot of luck may be all you need to overcome. ..
Now, on to the Post-Keepers Power Rankings! (Commissioner’s Note: Keep in mind these are strictly based on players, their cost, my expectations for their 2018 performance, and remaining team draft budgets. They are no way scientific because that would be over the top… don’t agree with the analysis, discuss it.)
Its not a foregone conclusion who the 2nd best team will be before we kick off the season until draft day is complete, but let’s take a look at where teams sit today, one day after Keepers are officially due. This is all subject to change as well as debate, with the top of the rankings being the lone FACT in the league today…
14. Team Motley
Keepers: Ben Roethlisberger ($20); Jameis Winston ($16)
Draft Budget Remaining: $264
Analysis: I mean, its tough to ignore these decisions, right? I’m moving on from ’17 Gostowski, but keeping TWO quarterbacks? In a league trending away from QB play, Makese went all in to solidify the position, especially given the few potential options he may have had this off-season (I guess he could’ve kept Torrey Smith or Kendall Wright or even… wait for it, Kenny Britt)… I get keeping Big Ben for a reasonable $20, and I probably would’ve moved Makese up the rankings to low double digits if he had, but wasting $16 on Winston, who would likely have gone for $1 at the end of the draft seems dubious. There’s no guarantee he’ll be any good this year, when he comes back from a 3-game suspension. It’s the epitome of a head scratcher. What’s worse? He spent valuable draft dollars on two players when only one will actually play every week. Sorry man…
13. Trubitsky Business
Keepers: Jordan Howard ($20); Kirk Cousins ($22)
Draft Budget Remaining: $258
Analysis: Going all in on winning last year left the cupboard near empty for the best commissioner in fantasy football, and really there’s nothing terribly exciting about his keepers. The only drama was my ongoing seesaw battle with keeping Travis Kelce for $47, which ultimately wasn’t worth it. I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with either keeper selection, but neither are true homerun hitters, and both pose serious risks. For Howard, he gets the ball a lot – 276 rushes last year – but Tarik Cohen gets a lot of his potential receptions and Howard’s fantasy value is a bit down because of this. For Cousins, the rationale is if he’s top-6 last year with no RBs or tight end, plus mediocre WRs, he’s only getting better this year, right? If that’s the case, why did I waffle at a $22 price tag?
12. Theoriddickly Still Alive
Keepers: Derrick Henry ($24); Tevin Coleman ($16); Vikings D/ST ($12)
Draft Budget Remaining: $248
Analysis: Matty Ice had some tough decisions and pulled a swerve last minute, choosing the Vikings D/ST over Stefon Diggs for $49. Despite a tough 2017, Matt had some decent keeper options that wouldn’t be laughed out of the building, though probably tough to move the needle. Keeping Henry and Coleman make sense; Henry looks to be the feature back in Tennessee while Coleman has slowly been taking snaps away from Devonta Freeman in Atlanta (156 compared to 196 rush attempts in 2017 and just 8 fewer passing targets to boot). Beyond Diggs (who I would have kept), Matt did pass up on cheap costs for Kenny Stills ($11), OJ Howard ($12), Josh Doctson ($12) and Matt Brieda ($10), who may see more time with Jarrod McKinnon getting banged up. The point is, there’s nothing wrong with any of his keepers, but not taking a flyer on any of the aforementioned potential IMPACT players may hurt his chances coming out of the gate, especially when solid D/ST units may be readily available in the draft.
11. Shut the Luck Up
Keepers: Jay Ajayi ($27); Duke Johnson ($17); Robert Woods ($12)
Draft Budget Remaining: $244
Analysis: I give my FIL credit for avoiding spending $146 on Antonio Brown, who has been his old reliable en route to an unlikely 2017 postseason berth. I’m high on Ajayi, as he could be a stud this season. Johnson too, but he’s in a crowded backfield with Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb – I’m envisioning nothing more than a third down back. Woods is also a good addition, given he’s cheap and was a WR1 last season. The addition of Brandin Cooks makes his efficiency less attractive, but all three are solid foundation pieces for the new-look STLU’ppers…
10. Kerryon My Wayward Johnson
Keepers: Dalvin Cook ($51); Alex Collins ($10); Kenyan Drake ($10)
Draft Budget Remaining: $229
Analysis: Back with a great new name and a whole RB keeper strategy, Coop surprised us with these choices, but I can’t fault him. First, Cook is worth the price tag and could be a slightly-discounted top-ten RB by December, though injuries on the Vikings o-line may jeopardize that. I like both Collins and Drake for $10 but I don’t trust the Baltimore offense with Joe Flacco steering the ship. Meanwhile, Drake may have the biggest upside potential in Miami, but Frank Gore is currently the #1 RB and there’s a deep sleeper rookie RB hot on their tails for reps with the first team. Coop’s options were minimal financially, so I’m ok with the strategy, but I would’ve explored Crowder at $22 and even Tyreek Hill at $35, though I can’t imagine he’d be worth that price tag this fall with all the weapons in KC.
9. The Fabulous Reilabito Birds
Keepers: Kennan Allen ($55); Marlon Mack ($11); Josh Gordon ($10)
Draft Budget Remaining: $224
Analysis: Keeping Allen for $55 hard stop would have been an A+ for Smeet, who was unfortunately priced out of some of his more attractive options, like Baldwin ($73). Josh Gordon was a great late-season addition for him with ‘18 on his mind, but Smeet has to be concerned with what’s going on in Cleveland. First, the starting QB is Tyrod Taylor who is serviceable but has never averaged 200 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, the Browns have Jarvis Landry, who will collect 8-12 targets per game and rumors are swirling that Dez Bryant may come aboard as well. Bryant isn’t great, but if he’s getting 4-5 targets a game, that’s even fewer chances for Gordon. Finally, we can’t sleep on what’s going on with Gordon’s personal life. More power to him to be removed from camp to make sure he’s well, but losing those reps in training camp might slow his start. For Marlon Mack, I mean, cool, whatever. The Colts’ o-line should be markedly improved from bottom dweller last year, but Mack isn’t an impact player. For $10, he’s worth a flyer, but I might consider Alshon Jeffrey at $52 as a better choice (commissioner’s note: never mind).
8. A Raging Dumpster Fire
Keepers: Robby Anderson ($11); JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10); Carson Wentz ($12)
Draft Budget Remaining: $267
Analysis: I hate applauding Toby, but this is a very fine set of Keepers. The late-season acquisition of Wentz for dirt cheap was a great move, even if we aren’t 100% sure how soon Wentz makes his return. Meanwhile, Anderson and JuJu are solid players for the bargain prices. With the Jets, who knows what they do, but Anderson is their WR1. Meanwhile, JuJu has big play potential and quite literally he’s cemented as the guy opposite the best WR in the league. It may not translate to 15 points per week, but JuJu has some big games ahead of him.
7. Vienna Sausages
Keepers: Le’Veon Bell ($92)
Draft Budget Remaining: $208
Analysis: Literally nothing to say about this one; perhaps the best choice of the keepers this season largely because any one of us would have to think about keeping him at that price point. That said, Bell is the only RB to finish in the top 5 the last two seasons in the league, averaging an astounding 21 points per game over the last two seasons. In real life, he had more than 30 additional rushing attempts than 2nd place Todd Gurley last year coupled with more than 100 receiving targets (2nd most by a running back). Now, with a franchise tag and Pittsburgh having no intention of re-signing him next year, they’re gonna run the hell out of him and that should be absolutely horrifying for opponents of Bell (and Jon in #GMRRFFA). The only question remaining for Jon is how he messes up the draft and time before the season starts, largely because you know its going to happen.
6. Dorne Diredonkeys
Keepers: Michael Thomas ($22); Alex Smith ($10); Dion Lewis ($11)
Draft Budget Remaining: $$257
Analysis: Three years in, and Michael Thomas is still only $22!!! Fuckin Dorne strikes again. There’s a reason he’s still playing meaningful games in Week 16 every year. Beyond having a top-5 WR for peanuts, Dorne went fairly conservative, keeping Alex Smith for $10. Considering his season last year, that seems pretty good. But weapons are the key factor here – the DC football team has an oft-injured tight end, average-at-best WRs and one RB is already lost for the season while their best comes back from a broken leg. Dion Lewis is also a solid pick-up but its still unclear how he’ll split time with Derrick Henry, or if he has the durability to sustain consistent play week to week. Beyond that, there were some reasonably-discounted WR options on the board too, like Randall Cobb at $18, Corey Davis at $23 and Rishard Matthews at $13 (seriously, someone is going to be WR1 for Tennessee this year, right?).
5. Surplus of Dignity
Keepers: Todd Gurley ($68); Marvin Jones Jr. ($11); Devin Funchess ($10)
Draft Budget Remaining: $211
Analysis: Congrats to Stabs being the first and only owner to ever submit keepers pre-NFL draft!!!! Beyond his keeper choices, I’m not sure there was a ton of speculation because what he did makes the most sense. First, Gurley, the best overall fantasy RB last year, at $68 is nothing short of a home field discount special. He led the league in rushing and TDs, dropped 64 receptions, and was impressive all season. You could even argue he’s the best RB in the league, but he’s a top-3 back at the least. In Jones, I don’t know if you get the 18+ yards per catch this season, but if he returns to his career average of 15 yards per catch, that’s still absolutely fantastic for a $10 WR. With Funchess, his numbers may not blow you away, but he’s got WR1 written all over him after a 63 reception/840yard/8TD split in 2016. And again, at $10, he’s worth a chance.
4. A Nu Start
Keepers: DeAndre Hopkins ($78); Ezekial Elliot ($85); Russell Wilson ($24)
Draft Budget Remaining: $113
Analysis: We’ve gone back and forth on Silvio’s keepers – I get his strategy of lining up home run hitters and doing the best he can to fill the remaining 12 players with a small auction budget, but I do disagree on some of his choices. Russell Wilson is a stud, but the same issues that plagued Seattle in the past only got worse. There’s still no offensive line or running game, and Doug Baldwin’s injury means his wide receiver crew is questionable at best. More so, the Seattle defense is completely shot, meaning there won’t be a cushion for Wilson and the offense like in years past and let’s be honest, I’m not 100% sure Wilson can keep taking beatings. The Seattle QB was sacked 43 times last year, the 4th highest in the league, and his line ranked 23rd – and guess what? Nothing’s improved. Meanwhile, I have nothing against Zeke, but I’d be very concerned with Dallas’ offense. Bryant and Witten weren’t elite last year, but the weapons in Arlington now include Tavon Austin and a plethora of Tight Ends that no one’s heard of. I’d still keep Zeke, but it’s a dangerous foray into the Cowboys offense… Again, I would’ve deeply considered keeping Old Man Fitzgerald, who was the 4th best WR last year. Not sure where he fits in this scenario, but it deserved some thought.
3. Lights, Kamara, Action!
Keepers: Christian McCaffrey ($62); Chris Hogan ($10); Alvin Kamara ($12)
Draft Budget Remaining: $216
Analysis: One, love the name; any chance you can remind people how you got Kamara, its worth it. Otherwise, these selections probably impressed me most. Eric Garcia is known for his fantasy football smarts and showed why on McCaffrey and Hogan. First, I was prepared to spend $100 on McCaffrey if he made it to draft – this dude had more receiving targets than Le’Veon Bell (113!!!) and led the league’s running backs. Meanwhile, in a Carolina offense that doesn’t have the most obvious WR1, McCaffrey will get plenty of touches in 2018. Meanwhile, jesus, love the Hogan keeper. One, he’s cheap. Two, pre-injury, Hogan dropped double digits in all but two games, including 17+ in four! He may not score 15 per game, but expect him to have a number of bright spots throughout the season, especially with Edelman suspended and Gronk all but guaranteed to get hurt. Bravo Garcia.
2. Denver Ponyboys
Keepers: Melvin Gordon ($39); Leonard Fournette ($68); Zach Ertz ($29)
Draft Budget Remaining: $164
Analysis: He doesn’t care about my opinion, but I was a big fan of my BIL’s keepers this weekend – he spent relatively well on keeping the most dominant 1-2 RB punch in the league in Gordon and Fournette. The Chargers’ RB has been a stud over the last two seasons, and is expected to get more targets in the passing game, so I’d be high on him, especially at under $40. Fournette is more of a wild card; one, he’s got some off-field attitude issues, evident by his suspension last year. Moreso, I’m fully expecting the Jags to regress from 2017. I have zero faith in Blake Bortles, and while the defense is amazing I question how long they can keep the Jags in games against a much more competitive AFC South (all speculation, but aren’t we high on Houston with Watson back, Luck as an upgrade in Indy, and even Tennessee actually running 3-wide receiver sets more than once a game???). Also, love the Ertz choice – at $29, getting a top-3 Tight End is worth it.
1. The Big Gronkowskis
Keepers: DaVante Adams ($20); Adam Thielan ($19); Kareem Hunt ($20)
Draft Budget Remaining: $241
Analysis: The CHAMPS have arrived. This thing is over so everyone get ready for 2nd place. Seriously, Galen had three bargains (and candidly could’ve arguably kept Rex Burkhead, Evan Engram, and Paul Richardson if space allowed) that make him the team to beat. My only concerns if I were him are whether Adams continues his ascent to an elite WR as his highest catch total was 75 in ’16 and he’s never broke 1,000 yards, and what impact Hunt will have in the Chiefs offense, which returns both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West along with Damien Williams. I’m not saying any of them are at Hunt’s level, but solid back-ups may eat up snaps coupled with Sammy Watkins joining Kelce and Tyreek Hill. His value might be limited a bit simply because there are a lot of mouths to feed.
Nonetheless, congratulations to Galen, who’s already climbed the mountain and is our 2018 champion. The best juggernaut we’ve seen in the history of #GMRRFFA and a well-deserved champion.