The Commissioner Strikes Back: 7 Tough Keeper Decisions for 2018

At the onset of Smeet Wars: A New Hope, I was reallllly excited. Ask Smeet; I couldn’t wait to be a recipient of quasi-fantasy football league-related content. On Sunday morning, it was electrifying to see Smeet (and a drunken Dornish response). Original IP in this league is almost as rare as a championship trophy, so my Sunday morning was set…

Then I started collecting data – on average, 70% of the league reads through the normal content I throw out there, and I witnessed a spike; 100% of owners not named Morabito read the Desk of Smeet, and an astonishing 73% rated the column as nothing short of a success, an opportunity to freshen up a boring offseason of the Commissioner pontificating on previous IP as if it was new (it wasn’t). Owners privately texted Smeet, offered him new questions for another(!!!) column, and seemed genuinely interested in Smeet’s opinion and (more aggravating) his life…

By mid-day today, I was nervous, and realized the only way Smeet’s not awarding trophies and organizing the 2019 draft next year at this time (i.e. commissioner responsibilities) would be by coming back strong asap, so here I am. Smeet’s success was a nice league distraction for me, as I religiously obsessed over one particular Keeper for 2018 (see below), and that got me thinking, what’s the toughest Keeper choices as we move towards 8/13/18 (Keeper deadline), so with that, I come back strong style with ORIGINAL CONTENT too!!!

Here’s the top 7 toughest Keeper decisions for next season – I’m dismissing every keeper who costs less than $20, and I am 98% certain Stephen Gostowski doesn’t make an appearance, so with that said, here’s a breakdown of the toughest choices for 6 owners over the summer. Also, I was going to include Todd Gurley, but his fate may already be sealed so I won’t (cut):

Antonio Brown ($146) – John Morabito

Don’t make that face – we all scoffed at his $136 price tag last year, but remember Julio Jones going for $107, AJ Green for $103, or David Johnson going for $127? Brown was outscored by just TWO non-QBs and dropped 30+ points FIVE times over the season. By comparison, he outpaced Julio by nearly 70 and AJ by nearly 100. And let’s be honest; the next couple of WRs – Deandre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and Larry Fitzgerald – had fantastic seasons at much cheaper prices, but they were all coming off injuries and/or sub-par seasons. So the question becomes again during the draft, how much is someone willing to pay for Brown? He went for $103 in 2016, and he was again the #1 WR, Jones was 6th and Fitzgerald and Hopkins weren’t even in the top 10. So, if you’re John Morabito and you come in to the draft knowing you need to lock up one high-priced player, as we all do, is it better to lock Brown in at $146, or do you think you can get him cheaper? At some point, locking up the best WR with a high price tag might be better than hoping Hopkins or another quality WR can have a lights out season…

Verdict: Don’t keep him… I don’t think the league has the appetite to spend like we all did last draft, but whomever gets Brown should be comfortable pushing $115-$120…

LeVeon Bell ($92) – Jon Del Rosario

Like John Morabito, the Vienna Sausages owner is in a pickle on this one, though the price tag might not be so bad for Jon, who kept Bell last year at $82 and holding his cost down. Like Brown, Bell has been a top-3 RB the last two season, finishing a distant second to Todd Gurley last season (30 points above Alvin Kamara who will cost 1/9th Bell this season but that’s water under the bridge). Nonetheless, the top four RBs last season all eclipsed 300 points, but aside from Bell, there was zero certainty among the others, including two rookies in Bell and Kareem Hunt (who was well scouted but who really anticipated him being that good?). Given his PPR value, Bell should be a lock, especially after catching 85 passes while leading all running backs with total touches by an astounding 60 touches, meaning he touched the ball four more times per game than LeSean McCoy, the league’s 2nd highest TT RB last season. Do the math; four extra touches and averaging 4 yards per carry means an extra 1.6 points per week over the next best RB. That’s absolutely insane… Despite his contract issues and being franchised again, Bell has been a beast since his rookie season, but after five years, should we begin to get nervous about his play going down hill? It has to be a concern, right?

Verdict: Bell is like Marshall Faulk or David Johnson (oh, that happened last year…), if his play is going downhill, you need to see it first. He’s a keeper at $92, and probably a slight discount compared to David Johnson going for $103 last season… To win this league, you need studs, and Bell is the epitome of that.

Leonard Fournette ($68) - Carlos

On the surface, Fournette seems like a no-brainer. He’s the 8th-best RB in the league last year, despite missing three games, averaging 20+ carries, but he had only 36 catches on 48 targets last year (Bell had 85 catches alone), tying him for 22nd in the league. More pressing, the Jags averaged the highest rushing yards per game while in the 3 games Fournette missed, the Jags still averaged a respectable 100+ yards (in fact, right in line with the Steelers). Fournette averaged 80 yards per game, but he also had the highest number of attempts (23) of any running back and his 3.5 yards per rush was just the 35th best in the league.

Verdict: The stats and price tag look great, but his injuries, a questionable Jags offense, and the fact that you could find similar backs like Frank Gore last year for 1/6th the price makes him worthy of being dropped.

Travis Kelce ($47) – The Commissioner

He was definitely being dropped, then I looked up his stats… for tight ends, he led the position in catches, 2nd in total yards, 2nd in number of touchdowns and first in number of targets. Even better, he played 15 out of 16 games compared to Gronk’s 13 of 16 and he’s $20 cheaper. Only four other tight ends averaged double digits last season, and Kelce averaged four points or better over all but two (Gronk and Ertz). So what’s the dilemma? Maybe it’s the rookie quarterback. Maybe it’s the high price tag for a non-Gronk tight end (the only other $40+ tight end ever drafted in the league was Jordan Reed for $44 last year…)? Maybe it’s the new additions to the KC offense (Good god, that’s Sammy Watkins!!!)? My answer: Kelce is a top 2 tight end, but even more impressive, he was a top Flex player, meaning only 16 WRs and RBs outperformed him last season. Can you tell who had the best 2017 between Kelce, Fournette, AJ Green, and Ezekial Elliot? It was Kelce, who will be even cheaper than any of them next year…

Verdict: I should keep him; right? I should keep Kelce. Right, wait, Jordan Reed is discounted?

Phillip Rivers ($43) - Matt

The good: He averaged 21 points per game, has an amazing offense, $43 for a sturdy top quarterback isn’t the worst thing in the world. The problem at least last season is that quarterbacks can come much cheaper… 5 of the top 7 QBs last year were $14 or cheaper and only Brady and Rodgers cost more than $20 in 2017 besides Rivers (6 of 7 of the top QBs last year cost less than Stephen Gostowski, FWIW… damn it!!!). That said, this year might be different though with new league rule changes to help QBs accumulate .2 point per 5 yards (as opposed to 1 point for each 25 yards). Unfortunately, that would have given Rivers an extra 5.4 points in 2017…

Verdict: Sell ‘em. QBs just aren’t worth excessive spending in this league, at least not yet.

Larry Fitzgerald ($40) - Silvio

Ummm… this guy has gone for $30 and $37 in the last two drafts, only to be the #11 WR in 2016 and #4 WR in 2017. This probably isn’t as hard as you’d think it should be, as he’s had three straight 100+ reception seasons but this is year 15 and he’s only missed 6 games his entire career so one would have to question if this is finally the year he slows down, especially with Sam Bradford tossing out passes to him down 15 with 3 minutes left in the fourth.

Verdict: Keep him. His worst season was 2014: 14 games, 63 catches, 784 yards 2 touchdowns, which would make him a top-40 WR by 2017 standards.

Justin Tucker ($20)

A late season edition, Tucker was the 4th best kicker in the league and, by comparison, a top-35 WR… oh wait? Kickers don’t cost more than $10 unless you keep them? Ok, nevermind…

Verdict: Cut him and spend your money more wisely…

Missing someone? Send your thoughts… Also, if you’re still here, send Smeet more questions (pete.d.richards@gmail.com). He wants to tell you more about the machinations behind the writer. It’ll be worth it.