Week 12 Recap: Down the Stretch

Here we are Riff Raff fans… Its been an exhilarating season where I’ve hardly had time to catch my breath. That said, we are finally here, in the money line and there’s still a ton at stake. I’m exhausted just playing out scenarios, which I deep dive at the bottom, so hang on to your butts and lets get rolling.

Did it Again

Let’s start with Carlos, who for the third straight week posted the highest total in the league despite Fournette getting tossed in the third quarter and Gordon exiting early for the Chargers. His RB depth moving forward is a serious concern but he also features the Tyreek Hill/Mike Evans/TY Hilton WR group plus Andrew Luck and Zac Ertz, so let’s please not bury this team just yet. He’s in the playoffs so this week is really only about seeding but Carlos is averaging 189 points per week over the last three. By comparison, Tito Galen averaged 185 points over a three-week span (weeks 5-7), which is second best this season. No other team comes even close.

Hangin with Mr. Cooper

Speaking of Tito Galen, he once again had a methodical win over Coop, who literally needed a victory last weekend. His RBs, even Josh Adams, eached posted 16 points while Tito Galen’s were less than impressive. That said, Coop’s TE and Flex (and D if we are counting), posted dismal numbers, and now Coop – who last week made it clear he’s all in when he acquired Edelman – is currently on the outside of the post season bubble, largely due to a loss to the Commish back in Week 7. His match-up with Makese next week is quite literally win-or-go-home.

Chaotic Loss

Damn, Garcia likely suffered the toughest loss of the season, less than a point to his biggest rival in the league, Mark Hutchinson. Despite four players posting 20+, Garcia was clearly let down by his RB/TE/Flex/Defense/Kicker, who all combined for just 7 points. You’ll see why this loss was so devastating in the playoff scenarios below, but I don’t believe he’s hampered too much, especially with Gurley, Kelce, and Cooks all on a bye. While unlikely, Garcia still had shot at a division title and, even more, the seedings as such all but ensure a very tough Round 1 playoff match-up.

They Are Who We Thought They Are

I’ve been pontificating on Makese’s team all season and despite a reasonably-strong performance this week, he squandered a tough match-up to the quasi-tanking Commissioner over the weekend. His RBs performed well – except LeSean McCoy – and Demaryus Thomas had his second-best showing of the season, but I’d be doing you all a disservice if I didn’t note the last undefeated team in 2018 is coming to the end of the season on a 2-5 record over his last 7 match-ups. To put that in to perspective, Makese's last seven-game record is tied for the worst stretch with Fredo Maisel (who hasn't been spoken about in weeks) and Stabs. He still holds out slim hopes of securing a division title but right now he’s the five seed and he’s facing a desperate Coop in Week 13, who will know pretty early on how his week is going when Drew Brees plays Thursday night in Dallas.

The Reign of Trubisky

Let’s be honest – I sold at the right time, bringing in much-needed assets before this week’s trade deadline bonanza, including a cheap Michael Thomas, a cheap Cooper Kupp (injured or otherwise), Chris Carson (ironically I finally have a legit #1 running back) and $60 draft dollars in a fire sale of assets, but I’m obviously sad as well. Sending away Cousins, Nuk, Evans, Edelman, Kittle, and Tarik Cohen hurts, and I’m clearly keeping a running score in my head of what they produce in the homestretch, knowing full well they’ll be lights out for their new owners… (For those keeping score at home, 116 points combined last week – better than my team totals the two weeks previously – and 24 points better than their replacements in Week 12) This team obviously wins the fictional title in my head and I vomit profusely in December.

Playoff Scenarios

Ok, I know why you're all here, so let's do this ish asap...

Playoffs Post-Week 12

1. Tito Galen (8-4) – Clinched playoff spot. Can clinch division title with win, OR loss by Makese. Can clinch #1 overall seed with win, or loss by FIL.

2. FIL (8-4) – Clinched playoff spot and division title. Can clinch #1 overall seed with win AND loss by Tito Galen.

3. The Sausage King (7-5) – Clinched playoff spot.

4. Carlos (7-5) – Clinched playoff spot.

5. Makese (7-5) – Clinched playoff spot. Can clinch division title with win AND loss by Tito Galen.

6. Mark Hutchinson (7-5) – Clinched playoff spot.

7. Garcia (6-6) – Can clinch playoff spot with win OR losses by either Coop or the Commissioner.

8. The Commissioner (6-6) – Can clinch playoff spot with win OR loss by Coop.

On the Outside

9. Coop (6-6) – Can clinch playoff spot with win AND loss by either The Commissioner or Garcia.

10. Stabs (5-7) – Eliminated from post-season contention.

11. Toby Kobach (5-7) – Eliminated from post-season contention.

12. The Unicorn (5-7) – Can clinch playoff spot with win AND losses by Coop and Garcia.

13. Fredo Maisel (4-8) – Eliminated from post-season contention.

14. Smeet (3-9) – Eliminated from post-season contention.

For the sake of drama, there isn’t nearly as much as in years past, especially 2017, when nearly every playoff team had a chance at a division title in the epic Week 13 MNF game, but there’s a lot to nit-pick here. First, its nearly certain Tito Galen will – unsurprisingly – swipe the #1 overall seed. He has the shocking-he’s-still-eligible-for-a-playoff-spot Unicorn this week; Tito Galen’s squad averages 153 points per week but the Unicorn has yet to even break 150 the entire season.

Meanwhile, there’s a mess in the middle – four 7-5 teams all split their head-to-head battles, but the Sausage King and Carlos have a leg up with two wins – and this could all go to shit pretty quickly in Week 13. While seeding definitely matters, the better goal would be to likely avoid the side of the bracket Tito Galen is on (likely the top half) and delaying the beat down until the championship.

The last two spots though are key – whether you are trying to tank or going all in on the 2018 season. After a devastating Week 12 loss, Garcia is in a really precarious position. He’s 2-6 in his last 8 and there are definitely scenarios where he finds himself in the loser’s bracket. Just imagine a suddenly game Smeet knocks him off this week coupled with wins by the Commish and Coop? Garcia is out. Or, just imagine the Unicorn shocks the world and the Commish knocks off the Sausage King while Coop loses? Garcia’s out. I think both scenarios are highly unlikely, but if you’re Garcia, you may be a little nervous.

One quick tidbit on the loser’s bracket – rules state that the winner of Consolation Game 7 is the winner of the tax. Unfortunately, the #9 and #10 seed face-off in Round 1 of the bracket, but the loser automatically faces off against the winner of #13 vs #14, meaning they still have a shot at the tax benefit. This was a stupid hiccup that I am attempting to address but any suggested remedies are welcome.

In any case, there’s still a little drama left in the world of GMRRFFA, so stay tuned and good luck to all parties this weekend.