Owners –
Man, shit got there this week. A lot of fun match-ups, some huge upsets and we are sadly bidding adieu to both Carlos and Toby, who witnessed their playoff dreams crash faster than one of Pete’s dad jokes. In any case, I threw a lot of stuff in this recap, mostly because I secretly enjoy all the applause I get in our WhatsApp chat… Take a look, especially at the deadline dates and tiebreakers sections. Let me know if you have any questions.
Also, for what its worth, I only referenced Makese once this week, which is better than usual considering the dumpster fire his team is (oh, he won this week? He knocked Carlos out of the postseason? That’s my bad).
On to the recap…
Julio Jones Breaks Fantasy Football
By now, we’re all aware of the Julio Jones experience this weekend; shattering league and NFL records (1st receiver to post 3 250+ yard games in league history), and the ill-fated timing for poor ANUS who had to bend over and take it in a brutal faceoff (see more on Silvio’s ANUS decisions below), but holy cow. Previous to this week, Julio cost Trubisky Business $107 in the draft to post a respectable 54 catches/786 yards/1 Touchdown, making him the most over-priced 15th ranked WR in fantasy football. Then, Sunday happened… Julio scored 54.8 points – easily the highest point total of any player through 12 weeks in the league, and outscored FOUR teams in the league after the 1 pm games and TWO still after the 4 pm games. Jones’ day was so impressive that his ranking as a fantasy WR went from 15 to 3 in ONE DAY. Yikes, sorry Silvio. Hopefully for me, this is a sign of things to come.
Speaking of Julio Poor Matt, missing Julio all season (remember when he’d post weekly recaps of the Trade that Wasn’t?), barely conscious through the latter part of the season (aside from realizing collecting keeper assets for next season makes sense), came up against league powerhouse My Uber is Here GRONKS, who needed a win to help long odds of winning a division title. With a new (if not accurate) new name, Matt’s Theoriddickly, Still Alive went HAM, playing spoiler faster than your drunk uncle at Thanksgiving dinner. Matt’s TSA ravaged Sexually Curious Gronks in all the wrong places, dropping a season high 151 points at a time when he’s literally only playing for the #1 seed of the Loser’s Bracket. In any case, nice job playing spoiler.
Play Your Studs I don’t care about match-ups or final stats – when setting your line-up, we all know we play our best and most consistent players whenever feasible, which makes ANUS’ decision to bench recently-acquired Larry Fitzgerald (the 6th best WR in the league) for trade piece after thought Alfred Morris. The anally-retentive rationale was that Morris had a better match-up vs the Chargers than Fitzgerald vs Jacksonville, and the results ultimately gave Fitzgerald just.3 points more than Alf, but there’s so much more to this. It didn’t cost ANUS a win, and it wasn’t in the playoffs, but every week, owners need to play their best players, and leaving one of the best on the bench was one of the silliest moves this side of keeping Stephen Gostowski for $22. In 11 previous games, Fitzgerald posted double digits 9 times, including 20+ points in his last two games. Meanwhile, Alf hadn’t eclipsed 9 points all season (even with Zeke out for the suspension). And take a closer look at Silvio’s “match-up argument,” where the Chargers defense had given up 100+ yards exactly once in its previous 6 games; to LeSean McCoy the week earlier after the Chargers built a 37-7 lead at halftime. Needless to say, don’t overthink your roster moves too much – play your damn studs because that’s why you traded Carson Wentz’s $1 keeper status next year!
Wholesale Advertising Might Be Misleading Look, I’m excited that Pete’s WSPDs are competitive, and mostly Pete’s the only person who consistently talks with me about the league in our side chats (well, when we aren’t making fun of Toby). His 6 game winning streak is lights out the best we’ve had all season, but man we need to take a closer look at the porn dealer to see if his team is faking it a bit. His streak is impressive, knocking off 2 8-4 teams and Dorne (9-3), but Pete hasn’t eclipsed 123.8 points (this week) all season and that should make him nervous when he heads in to the postseason. He’s averaging just 107 points per week (12th in the league) but his opponents’ post the 3rd lowest points total in the league against him. That’s a recipe for disaster. At this point, we have a pretty good sense of where everyone lands (ANUS scores like a mad man, or barely shows up; Gronks come strong every week; Carlos refuses to set his lineup), so Pete better be wary as he moves in to the postseason about huge outputs – for example, teams have posted better than Pete’s season high (123.8) 51 times this season, or four times per week on average, so its literally a matter of time for Pete’s postseason aspirations to die a slow painful death. Sorry buddy, maybe we can talk keepers after our first round playoff exits.
Key deadlines A few reminders – the trade deadline is this Thursday at 12 pm Eastern Time. Additionally, per league rules, players eligible for keeper status next year MUST be on your roster by the start of Week 13 Thursday night (I’ll make an exception if a trade doesn’t officially clear to your roster until the following day since it has to be accepted by that afternoon).
A Brief Explanation of Tiebreakers (400+ words later…) I’ll be diving in to the playoffs momentarily, but wanted to discuss tiebreakers briefly, particularly for division titles, the number one overall seed, and the final two playoff spots. Here’s the adopted league language again for your review:
All tie-breakers will be determined by head-to-head records, followed by total points for, intra-division record, and total points against (in that order). If two teams are still tied, a coin flip by the commissioner will be the final determination.
So we are clear, in case of a three-way tie (as could be the case Fire Division as well as the 7/8 seeds), I will first look at head-to-head wins. If the 3 teams are 1-1 (as is the case for the Fire Division and 7/8 seeds), the next criteria is total points scored (side note: if there was a three-way tie, but one team owned head-to-head wins over the other two, that team would clearly win the tiebreaker). I just want to make sure we are all on the same page, especially the 7/8 seeds though the last man out (STLU) has a chance to earn their way in to the postseason with a win this week.
Also, for the number one overall seed, if there’s a tied record (which could be the case with FIVE teams potentially finishing at 9-4), I will first do divisional tiebreakers and then do tiebreaker scenarios between the two division winners.
Finally, these are the rules as we’ve agreed to them. If for some reason ESPN doesn’t acknowledge them, I have the ability to alter the brackets if needed (hey Matt, I’m not doing it for the Losers Bracket, sorry). Let me know if you have any questions… Now, on to the playoffs.
Playoffs So, no one clinched a spot this week (top 6 are already in) but two played themselves out (Carlos and Toby), leaving just three teams vying for the last two spots. On the top half, 5 (FIVE!!!) teams are still fighting for a division title, which means something since there’s $100 payouts to both division winners. The #1 overall seed is still in play for four of those teams (sorry Humble Gronks, you would lose tiebreakers vs both potential Fury Division winners if you were a division champ at 9-4). In any case, here’s the scenarios you need to know heading in to Week 13 (top 8 advance):
1. Dorne (9-3) – The math is simple, one win against Trubisky Business and he clinches the division and number one overall seed. If he loses, Dorne needs a Pete loss to clinch the division. Otherwise, wins by Gronkies and WSPDs would make it a three-way tie with head-to-head records all at 1-1. If that happens, Dorne would have to make up a 56.6 point deficit to Maybe Happy Gronks in Week 13.
If Dorne manages to win the division at 9-4, he’d be the #1 overall seed over division winner Stabs, but not against hypothetical division winner Trubisky Business due to head-to-head match-ups (under this scenario, I would have defeated Dorne in Week 13).
2. Stabs/Kaeptain America (8-4) – Its pretty simple for Stabs, with a head-to-head win over Trubisky. A win or a loss by Trubisky clinches the division. If he wins the division, he could be #1 seed over Gronkie Monster at 9-4, but not over Dorne (10-3 or 9-4) or WSPDs (9-4).
3. The Big Gronkowski (8-4) – His scenarios are pretty clearly laid out. The only way he can clinch the division is a win, plus a Dorne loss and a WSPDs win plus maintaining his point totals.
4. WSPDs (8-4) – Again pretty well laid out, but Pete needs a win plus a Dorne loss (head-to-head) and for all intents a Galen Gronk Rock Band loss. He’s down a massive amount in points differentials to Galen so a three-way tie means he’s all but out. If he managed to get the division, he would have the tiebreaker over either Stabs or myself due to head-to-head wins if it came down to that.
5. Trubisky Business (8-4) – Boy needs help. I need a win plus Stabs loss for the division and have a shot at the #1 overall seed so long as Dorne or Daft Gronk win the division (due to head-to-head wins).
6. ANUS (7-5) – Last week’s loss hurt his seeding, and he’s likely going to be seeded anywhere between 5 and 8. He only holds a tiebreaker over Stabs in the five teams above him, though a number of 8-5 teams including ANUS could vault him slightly higher in seeding. More concerning, a loss coupled with a win by Vienna Sausages and/or STLU could drop ANUS down to a 7 or even 8 seed (who wants the #1 seed if ANUS is the 8?).
7. Vienna Sausages (6-6) – Pretty simple but a win or a loss by Coop clinches his ticket to the postseason. (Check ATHNN’s scenario for a three-way tie)
8. STLU (6-6) – Same as Vienna; a win or a Coop loss.
9. ATHNN (5-7) – He needs help. A win plus a Vienna loss clinches a spot for Coop (he’d be out if Vienna won but STLU lost because of the head-to-head scenario)
What happens if there’s a three-way tie? It gets tricky, but if all three end up at 6-7 (very possible; Vienna vs Gronkober to Remember, STLU vs Stabs, and Coop vs Makese), each is 1-1 against the other competitors, meaning I’d look at total points scored for the season. Under that scenario, STLU would likely be on the outside looking in, trailing Vienna by 79.7 points and Coop by 76.2, meaning – in a loss – STLU would need to post a HUGE point total (his highest point total this season is 144.8. By comparison, both Vienna and Coop average just over 113 points per week). Also, don’t feel bad for STLU if he’s out of the playoffs. He could’ve clinched with a win in Week 12 or Week 13, so this is on my FIL (shit, my charm’s worn off).
That said, Week 13 offers a lot to play for. Six playoff teams will square off for seeding and money, and those guys fighting for divisions literally have money on the line. Meanwhile, Vienna, STLU, and ATHNN are all playing to have a chance to win the $800 prize as league champs.
Needless to say, I’ll be watching games this week a bit more closely than Silvio follows the Chargers defense.
Good luck gentlemen.
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